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Economy, Macro & Market Cycles

Union Budget

The government of India's annual statement of estimated receipts and expenditure, presented on 1 February.

Formula Test: the document states revenue and capital receipts, revenue and capital expenditure, and the resulting deficits for the coming financial year
Unit ₹ crore

In depth

For markets, the two numbers that matter most are the capital expenditure allocation, which drives the investment cycle, and the gross borrowing figure, which drives bond yields — often more than any tax announcement. Budget estimates are projections built on nominal GDP and revenue assumptions, so the revised estimates published a year later frequently differ materially. Markets tend to be volatile on budget day and to give back much of the move within weeks, because the substance takes longer to assess than the session allows. Changes to securities transaction tax and capital gains rates are the announcements that affect investors most directly.

Worked example

A budget projecting ₹11.11 lakh crore of capital expenditure and ₹14.01 lakh crore of gross borrowing gives markets two numbers to react to. If nominal GDP undershoots the assumption by 2%, the deficit ratio widens without any change in spending.

Illustrative figures, chosen so the arithmetic is easy to follow. Not a live price and not a valuation of any company.

Educational reference only

This entry explains what “Union Budget” means. It is not investment advice and not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Any numbers above are illustrative, not live prices, and nothing here predicts price direction or rates a stock. Consider your own circumstances and consult a SEBI-registered investment adviser before acting.