Expectancy
The average result per trade of a strategy, combining win rate with the sizes of wins and losses.
Formula
Expectancy = (Win Rate x Average Win) - (Loss Rate x Average Loss)
Unit
₹
In depth
Expectancy is the number that decides whether a strategy makes money, and it shows immediately that win rate alone is meaningless — a system winning 30% of the time can be highly profitable and one winning 80% can lose. It must be computed net of all costs, because a positive gross expectancy is routinely turned negative by brokerage, taxes, spread and slippage. Positive expectancy also does not guarantee a positive outcome over any particular stretch: variance means long losing runs occur even in sound systems. It is an average, and averages say nothing about the path.
Worked example
A 40% win rate with average wins of ₹3,000 and average losses of ₹1,000 gives 0.40 x 3,000 - 0.60 x 1,000 = 1,200 - 600 = ₹600 per trade. Add ₹250 of round-trip costs and the true figure is ₹350.
Illustrative figures, chosen so the arithmetic is easy to follow. Not a live price and not a valuation of any company.
Educational reference only
This entry explains what “Expectancy” means. It is not investment advice and not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Any numbers above are illustrative, not live prices, and nothing here predicts price direction or rates a stock. Consider your own circumstances and consult a SEBI-registered investment adviser before acting.