Consensus Estimate

The consensus matters less as a forecast than as the benchmark against which a result is judged: a company can grow profit 20% and see its shares fall because the consensus expected 30%. Consensus figures are known to be optimistic on average and to cluster, because being wrong alongside everyone else costs an analyst less than being wrong alone. The dispersion between the highest and lowest estimate is often more informative than the average, since wide dispersion signals genuine uncertainty. Coverage in India thins rapidly outside the large-caps, so a small-cap consensus may be two analysts and should not be read as a market view.