Backwardation
A condition in which futures prices are below the spot price, and later expiries are priced below nearer ones.
How it is identified
Test: Futures Price < Spot Price, with successively distant contracts priced progressively lower
Unit
qualitative
In depth
For financial futures, backwardation usually signals a large expected dividend before expiry or difficulty in borrowing the stock to short it, since either breaks the normal carry relationship. For commodities it typically reflects immediate scarcity, where holding physical stock now has a convenience value exceeding the cost of storage. A rolling long position in backwardation earns a positive roll yield, the mirror of the cost incurred in contango. As with contango, the term describes the shape of the futures curve rather than any view about the direction of prices.
Worked example
Futures at 23,910 against spot at 24,000 with a ₹230 dividend expected before expiry. The 90-point discount is the dividend a futures holder will not receive, not a market forecast of a fall.
Illustrative figures, chosen so the arithmetic is easy to follow. Not a live price and not a valuation of any company.
Educational reference only
This entry explains what “Backwardation” means. It is not investment advice and not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Any numbers above are illustrative, not live prices, and nothing here predicts price direction or rates a stock. Consider your own circumstances and consult a SEBI-registered investment adviser before acting.