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Economy, Macro & Market Cycles

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Economy, Macro & Market Cycles

Balance of Payments

A record of all economic transactions between a country's residents and the rest of the world in a period.

Balance of Payments = Current Account + Capital Account + Financial Account + Errors and Omissions = Change in Reserves ₹ crore
Economy, Macro & Market Cycles

Base Effect

The distortion in a growth rate caused by an unusually high or low value in the comparison period.

Test: the current growth rate is driven substantially by the level of the year-earlier figure rather than by current activity %
Economy, Macro & Market Cycles

Bear Market

A sustained period of falling prices, conventionally marked by a decline of 20% or more from a high.

Test: the index has fallen 20% or more from its prior peak %
Economy, Macro & Market Cycles

Bubble

A period in which asset prices rise far above any defensible estimate of value, sustained by expectations of further rises.

Test: prices are justified primarily by the expectation of selling higher rather than by the asset's cash flows qualitative
Economy, Macro & Market Cycles

Bull Market

A sustained period of rising prices, conventionally marked by a rise of 20% or more from a low.

Test: the index has risen 20% or more from its prior trough, without an intervening 20% decline %
Economy, Macro & Market Cycles

Business Cycle

The recurring pattern of expansion and contraction in economic activity around a long-term growth trend.

Phases: expansion, peak, contraction, trough, recovery, repeating with irregular length and amplitude qualitative